Venezuela's Fragile Recovery
Signal: Venezuela’s oil and debt recovery is gaining momentum after Maduro’s removal, with crude output rising and a major sovereign and PDVSA debt restructuring now underway.
Impact: The business risk appears in the gap between energy recovery, creditor negotiations, legal credibility, political legitimacy, and institutional repair.
Watchpoint: Track oil output, U.S. sanctions licenses, creditor talks, election timing, political-prisoner releases, and new foreign investment in oil, mining, infrastructure, and public works.