Venezuela's Fragile Recovery

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Venezuela's Fragile Recovery

Signal: Venezuela’s oil and debt recovery is gaining momentum after Maduro’s removal, with crude output rising and a major sovereign and PDVSA debt restructuring now underway.

Impact: The business risk appears in the gap between energy recovery, creditor negotiations, legal credibility, political legitimacy, and institutional repair.

Watchpoint: Track oil output, U.S. sanctions licenses, creditor talks, election timing, political-prisoner releases, and new foreign investment in oil, mining, infrastructure, and public works.